Which NFL teams *actually* got better this offseason?

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Kevin Cole joined the show to break down his Offseason Improvement Index, a data-driven tool used to evaluate how NFL rosters have improved (or declined) year-over-year. His work at UnexpectedPoints.com has become must-read material for analytically-minded fans, bettors, and even NFL front office staff. Here are the key insights from our conversation:

What is Unexpected Points?

Kevin describes the site as catering to the "nerdy, numberier football fan." His content draws from past experience at PFF and DFS sites like RotoGrinders, focusing on analytics that aren't always directly tied to betting or fantasy, but absolutely inform both. In-season, he does deep game reviews and quarterback analysis. In the offseason, he shifts toward roster value, draft strategy, and team improvement projections.

How the Improvement Index Works

• Core concept: The Index projects a team’s upcoming season based on the prior year’s roster, then adjusts for offseason changes using a plus-minus metric similar to the NBA.

• Player value is measured using EPA-based on/off-field impact, smoothed through clustering of similar players.

• Participation data (i.e., snap counts) is used to weight contributions, with additional considerations for injury risk, coordinator changes, and scheme tendencies.

• Point differential: Each team has a point differential in the index. A +43 improvement doesn’t mean the Patriots will score 43 more points. It means their projected point differential is 43 points better than if they had kept their 2024 roster intact. That’s worth about 1.3 wins this year.

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Roster Modeling Nuance

• Rotational players are harder to model, so Kevin smooths out usage based on prior snaps and coaching history.

• Fullbacks, centers, and low-snap positions get context-specific adjustments depending on scheme and replaceability.

• Coaching changes don’t radically shift the projection unless it’s a QB or team-level philosophy shift.

Team-Level Highlights

• Patriots: The biggest gainers, with upside tied to improved depth and variance at QB. Diggs only ranks as their 5th most valuable addition.

• Bears: Interior OL upgrades (Jackson, Dolman) don't rate as highly, but the total picture (especially adding Joe Thuney) is strong.

• Panthers: Ranked 3rd in improvement. Key reason? They didn’t lose much valuable talent, and the draft well based on surplus value.

• Browns: Gained ~5 points mostly from marginal improvements at QB (Pickett vs. projected backups). Still volatile due to QB uncertainty.

• Raiders: Geno Smith is a clear upgrade at QB, but the rest of the roster is roughly flat. Some natural regression expected after underperforming last year.

• 49ers: Losses overhyped due to player reputation rather than projected value. Comp picks help long-term roster strength.

• Jets: Show significant drop-off. Fields isn’t rated as an upgrade over Rodgers, and they lost valuable supporting pieces like Davante Adams.

• Seahawks: Metcalf loss hurts more than Kupp helps. Darnold is a mid-tier projection (QB18–25 range), though he did flash top-5 efficiency last year.

• Eagles/Chiefs: Bottom tier in improvement, largely due to difficulty sustaining elite rosters. Kevin notes he had Ravens and Bills power-rated higher than the Chiefs pre-Super Bowl.

Undervalued Teams?

• Colts: Slightly improved, with potential upside from Anthony Richardson or even Daniel Jones (yes, really).

• Browns: Again undervalued in the betting market due to lingering QB pessimism, despite a strong supporting cast.

What’s Next from Kevin?

Expect more work pre-draft and post-draft:

• Updated Improvement Index

• “Analytical big board” using surplus draft value

• Post-draft evaluations factoring positional value, trade value, and reach vs. value metrics

Last month I sent out two draft bets that I made on team specials.

Here are two more that I made.

Buffalo Bills 1st Pick: Defensive Line/Edge (+140)

Sean McDermott was quite open at the annual meeting interviews this week about his philosophy on building the defensive line and mentioned to multiple reporters that it was a priority. With the PED suspensions to Ogunjobi and Hoecht, I think the Bills are still in play to pursue more depth at the position.

Carolina Panthers 1st Pick: Defensive Line/Edge (-140)

Dan Morgan let a note slip in his combine interview I thought was noteworthy. He said that last year their goal was to rebuild the offensive line - which they did - and this year they want to do the same with the defense. He’s since doubled down on that take with local media. It’s a consensus among mocks I reference too.

Enjoy your weekend,

Adam