NFL Scouts Can’t Bet the Draft — But If They Could... (Part 2)

The following email looks at defensive players. If you did not see the offensive player breakdown yesterday, here is the link.

Bob McGinn has covered the NFL since the 1970s. Each year, he compiles one of the most detailed draft previews anywhere—now hosted on Tyler Dunne’s Go Long. The full piece runs 104 pages and more than 110,000 words, breaking down the top 10–12 players at every position with extensive off-the-record commentary from NFL scouts and executives.

I read the whole thing and pulled out some of the best quotes that overlap with the betting market and summarized them below. These aren't “picks” from scouts, and I’m not implying they’re betting the draft (that would be illegal!). But comparing what they are saying to sportsbook lines offers another data point to help handicap this market.

I highly recommend everyone check out the draft guide. 

👉️ If you find any of these quotes compelling enough to make a real bet on the draft, consider doing so at BetOnline by tapping or clicking here. They have the best availability and limits right now of any sportsbook.

All quotes below are from the Bob McGinn draft guide. Hundreds more are available in it.

Defensive Linemen

Hypothetical bets:
Total DL selected in Round 1: Over 8.5 (-150)

Mason Graham (DL1)
“He’s got strength and balance as a rusher but I didn’t see a wow speed or quickness guy. I’ve seen the guy mentioned as a top-5 (pick). F--k, he’s not that.”
“He’s from one of those powerhouse high-school programs (Servite) and now Michigan so he’s polished up,” said a fifth scout. “I could see him going in the top 12.”

Walter Nolen (DL2)
“He’s the best 3-technique — by far,” one scout said. “Tremendous athlete.”
“He’d probably be at the top of the list if you could just not see him between plays, between drills, between meetings,” another scout said. “This kid has been paid at five different schools: three high schools and two colleges. He is a mercenary. He’s probably the biggest mercenary in this whole draft. He has followed the money everywhere but yet is very quiet and shy. You would think totally disinterested.”

Alfred Collins (DL3)
“Good, solid player,” said a third scout. “Nothing great. He’ll be a sometime starter.”

Kenneth Grant (DL4)
“I like him better than Graham,” said a second scout. “He has length, push. He’s aggressive. I’d take him over Mazi Smith.”

Derrick Harmon (DL6)
“He’s got the length to play 5-technique and the quickness to play 3. If he goes after 20 someone’s getting a great value pick.”

Edge Rushers

Hypothetical bets:
Mykel Williams Under 15.5 (-130)

Abdul Carter (EDGE1)
“There’s a pretty strong consensus here that he’s the top defender out there. He’s a legitimate difference-maker. He’s rare with his motor and athletic ability. He does get beat up some. He’s on the ground too often. He’s just going to keep getting better once he gets more reps (outside).”

Jalon Walker (EDGE2)
“When you add the whole player up I’d rather have this guy (than Carter),” said one scout.

Shemar Stewart (EDGE3)
“He’s the classic example of a guy who has no idea how to play football,” one scout said. “Doesn’t know how to take on blocks, doesn’t know how to find the ball, doesn’t know how to work off things. I was shocked he was 281 (at the Senior Bowl). He plays like he’s 240. He crushed it at the combine but in the games he is just a nonfactor.”

Mykel Williams (EDGE4)
“I thought this guy was better than Travon Walker,” said a second scout. “If he had had the year he was supposed to, he would have challenged for the first pick in the draft. That didn’t happen.”

James Pierce (EDGE5)
“Traits-wise, he’s for sure first round.”
“Really liked the get-off and burst of speed and bend,” said a second scout. “He had top-5 buzz coming off 2023 (10 sacks) and then with more attention focused on him he disappeared in some games.”

Mike Green (EDGE6)
“He’s got the character issue,” said a third scout. “Nothing ever came of it legally but there’s a lot of smoke.”
“If he goes first round it’s more later because of that (character),” said a fourth scout.

Linebackers

Jihaad Campbell (LB1)
“He is all over the field,” one scout said. “Explosive, nasty. They do everything with this guy. He’s a former D-end. He has got bad intentions. He can blitz, cover. Love this guy. Mid-first round.”

Smael Mondon (LB2)
“When he was healthy he was more the will linebacker, the fast-flow type versus a heavy-handed, stack blocks, between the tackles type guy. Now the character’s not great on him but, assuming he gets healthier and gets coached up, I think he’s a starter. Second round.”

Cornerbacks

Hypothetical bets:

Cornerbacks in Round 1: Under 4.5 (-290)
Jahdae Barron Over 18.5 (-165)

Travis Hunter (CB1)
“The best corner I have done in my career is Champ Bailey and he’d be right up against him,” said a fifth scout. “I wouldn’t say he’s better but he’s really good. I had him as a corner at the beginning of the year but then the more I watched him I started getting excited about the receiver. He’s probably the best player at both positions.”

Will Johnson (CB2)
“As a pure corner I have him over Hunter,” said one scout. “That guy scares the bejesus out of me. He’s not Patrick Surtain. I saw him more of a second-rounder.”
“He’s not the athlete that Christian Gonzalez is but he’s like a lower-level hotel in that chain. There’s a lot good. There’s just not a ton of great.”

Maxwell Hairston (CB3)
“Hairston’s the best one they’ve ever had (at Kentucky), he really is. I think he’s definitely a first-rounder.”

Jahdae Barron (CB4)
“Not a safety-type tackler but really good for a corner. He’s more of a skilled cover guy than Brian Branch. Goes in the 20s. He’s a really good football player. Late first.”

Benjamin Morrison (CB5)
“Was looking like a first-round draft choice until Game 6 last season when he suffered a torn labrum in his left hip.”

Azareye’h Thomas (CB6)
“He was easily a first-rounder and then he didn’t run well,” one scout said. “I still think this guy’s a solid second-rounder.”

Shavon Revel (CB7)
“Before he got hurt he was trending to being a first-round corner so now maybe he goes in the second or third,” said a second scout.

Safeties

Hypothetical bets:

Malaki Starks Under 23.5 (-115)

Malaki Starks (S1)
“Everybody loves him (at Georgia),” one scout said. “Can play nickel, safety, and corner in a pinch. Leader, instinctive, athletic. Everybody stands on the table when they talk about him. Top 20.”

Nick Emmanwori (S2)
“This guy’s a force of nature,” a third scout said. “Top-20 talent but there’s some bells and whistles that come with him. There’s some inconsistency and possible character issues—more like football immaturity. Strong, physical, above average in coverage for a big man. Motor is a little disappointing in pursuit.”