NFL Free Agency: Hits, Misses, and Changes in Odds

Changes in Super Bowl futures before and after:

Rising:

Pittsburgh 80-1 to 40-1

Cincinnati 18-1 to 16-1

Las Vegas 125-1 to 100-1

New England 125-1 to 100-1

Dropping:

San Francisco 15-1 to 18-1

NY Jets 100-1 to 150-1

Seattle 60-1 to 75-1

Miami 40-1 to 50-1

Houston 25-1 to 35-1

Q: What’s the one signing we’ll look back on as a total disaster?

A: Seattle signing Sam Darnold.

Darnold’s career-best 2024 season (4,300 yards, 35 TDs, 12 INTs) came under ideal conditions—playing indoors, throwing to Justin Jefferson, and benefiting from Kevin O’Connell’s offensive scheming. He was well protected, with the Vikings' offensive line ranking 12th in pass protection composite ratings.

Seattle presents a far worse situation. The offense is undergoing a full scheme overhaul, shifting its focus toward the run game. There’s no dome, no DK Metcalf or Tyler Lockett, and an offensive line that ranked 26th in pass protection last year—with no meaningful upgrades in free agency.

Minnesota moved on from Darnold largely due to his struggles under pressure in the final two games of the season. Seattle, meanwhile, is doubling down on a risky bet by replacing Geno Smith with Darnold. This move looks destined to fail. As a result of these moves, I project the Seahawks’ power rating to drop by 2.5 points.

Q: Which team made the most drastic shift in philosophy based on free agency?

A: San Francisco signalling a move from 2-1 to 1-2.

Kyle Shanahan appears to have hit the panic button. Super Bowl LVIII exposed a major flaw—Steve Spagnuolo’s 70% man coverage approach stifled the 49ers’ offense. Defenses took note, playing man coverage against San Francisco at the highest rate ever recorded over a full season in 2024.

The response? A complete offensive reset. Moving on from Deebo Samuel and Kyle Juszczyk signals a shift away from 21 personnel (highest usage rate league wide in 2024) toward 12 personnel (lowest usage rate league wide in 2024). This aligns with a growing NFL trend—defenses are relying more on nickel packages, making 12 personnel a logical counter.

Another factor? The Seahawks' hiring of Mike Macdonald, who brought in Shanahan disciple Klint Kubiak as offensive coordinator. Macdonald’s defensive schemes have consistently challenged Shanahan-led offenses, and with Kubiak in Seattle, the NFC West chess match just got more complex. Adjustments are necessary.

This isn’t a crisis—yet. If the 49ers draft a tight end like Tyler Warren to pair with George Kittle, this offense could be even more dangerous in 2025.

Q: Which team spent big in free agency but still has major holes heading into the draft?

A: New England beefing up on defense but neglecting the offense.

The Patriots made strong defensive additions—Milton Williams, Robert Spillane, Harold Landry, and Carlton Davis all bring impact talent. With Mike Vrabel taking over as head coach, the defensive floor should rise immediately. After ranking 30th in defensive efficiency last season (a staggering drop from 8th in 2023), Vrabel’s aggressive, disciplined approach—paired with a more talented front seven—should help restore some of the defensive identity that defined the Patriots in past years. New England should be at least above average in 2025 against the 5th easiest projected schedule.

The offense, however, is a disaster in the making. The Patriots enter 2025 with arguably the league’s worst skill-position group. They missed out on every top veteran wide receiver, leaving them without a true No. 1 target. Cooper Kupp remains an option, but his age and injury history make him a risky solution rather than a long-term fix. The tight end group lacks explosiveness, and the running game—while solid with Rhamondre Stevenson—won’t be enough to carry the offense on its own.

The offensive line remains a liability. Morgan Moses is a short-term upgrade at tackle, but his addition alone won’t resolve persistent pass protection issues. The interior line struggled in 2024, and with a young quarterback under center, shaky protection could be a major problem.

Q: Which team’s free agency strategy shows a clear vision for the future?

A: Chicago building with Ben Johnson as he helped do with the Lions.

New head coach Ben Johnson wasted no time establishing an identity, mirroring the offensive build from Detroit—prioritizing a strong front to create a quarterback-friendly system.

The Bears overhauled their offensive line, adding Joe Thuney, Drew Dalman, and Jonah Jackson to solidify the interior. These upgrades should significantly improve an offense that ranked 30th in inside runs last season, a glaring weakness that limited their ability to stay ahead of the chains. With a stronger interior line, Chicago’s ground game should become more reliable, opening up play-action opportunities for Caleb Williams.

Chicago’s line held up reasonably well in 2024 protecting the passer (16th in pass-block win rate), but Williams’ 12.4% pressure-to-sack rate was the worst in the league. A stronger interior should help keep him in rhythm rather than forcing constant improvisation.

The challenge? Chicago faces the NFL’s second-toughest schedule, including the hardest road slate. Even with an exaggerated 3.5-point power rating boost to reflect the moves, they are still projected to win fewer than eight games. The talent upgrade is real, but immediate success isn’t guaranteed.

Q: Which moves signal a team is in win-now mode and not rebuilding?

A: Las Vegas making aggressive moves on offense and defense.

Pete Carroll is 74. Geno Smith is 35. There’s no time for a rebuild!

The Raiders’ offseason moves signal a team that believes it can compete now rather than taking a long-term rebuilding approach. Logic suggests they’d use the draft to bolster their offensive line, but last season, Geno Smith played exceptionally well despite facing the league’s highest pressure rate under 2.5 seconds.

Smith undoubtedly upgrades this team by about two points in power ratings, but the sudden top-10 QB hype seems extreme. His indoor vs. outdoor splits are inflated by the fact that over half of those games came against bottom-10 defenses.

Don’t be surprised if the Raiders stay aggressive in the draft, adding more offensive firepower. New GM John Spytek repeatedly emphasized at the Combine that he wants his team to play with an aggressive, physical identity that shows up on film.

Q: Which team quietly pulled off some of the best free agency signings?

A: Denver adding two 49ers veterans to an already stacked defense.

Dre Greenlaw and Talanoa Hufanga are both coming off injury-riddled 2024 seasons—Greenlaw played just 38 snaps, and Hufanga logged 308. There’s no guarantee either returns to pre-injury form. But if they do? This could be the best defense the league has seen in the past decade.

Both players ranked top 10 at their positions in 2023 and fill key coverage gaps Denver struggled with last year. Greenlaw adds elite sideline-to-sideline range at linebacker, complementing Alex Singleton’s downhill play style, while Hufanga’s versatility as a box safety or deep coverage defender gives defensive coordinator Vance Joseph even more flexibility.

The Broncos already finished No. 1 in EPA/play allowed and No. 3 in scoring defense last season, largely due to a dominant front seven. Adding Greenlaw and Hufanga strengthens the second level, turning what was already an elite unit into a potentially historic one. If the offense can take even a marginal step forward, this team could emerge as a legitimate contender in the AFC.

Q: Which team’s free agency moves reveal doubt in their quarterback?

A: Indianapolis adding Daniel Jones.

GM Chris Ballard claimed there would be an open QB competition. The expectation? A veteran mentor and challenger for Anthony Richardson.

The reality? They signed Daniel Jones.

Now, the Colts have the two lowest-rated quarterbacks from the past two seasons competing for the starting job. Richardson has been working with Josh Allen’s trainer to refine his accuracy, but splitting reps with Jones could hinder his development.

On paper, this move makes little sense—Jones’ on-field play has steadily deteriorated. After both Brian Daboll and Kevin O’Connell passed on him, his ceiling appears capped. This feels like an unnecessary quarterback controversy without a clear solution.

Q: Which team has botched free agency so far?

A: Cincinnati not getting the Chase and Higgins deals done.

Joe Burrow has yet to experience a fully uninterrupted offseason. Between injuries and Ja’Marr Chase’s holdout last year, the Bengals have repeatedly started slow, posting a 4-10-1 record in the first three weeks of the season with Burrow at quarterback.

The priority should have been securing long-term deals for Chase and Tee Higgins early. Instead, negotiations stalled. Now, Cincinnati faces an inflated price tag—recent extensions for Maxx Crosby and Myles Garrett have significantly raised the market floor for Chase and Higgins.

If these deals don’t get done before training camp, it could be disastrous. Some around the league even speculate that continued mishandling of contract negotiations could eventually push Burrow to consider playing elsewhere after this season.

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Adam