NFL 2025 Projections: Easiest & Toughest Schedules Ranked

I updated the end-of-season aggregate power ratings to generate point spreads and moneylines for all 272 regular season games. Using these results, I derived win totals for each team and evaluated their strength of schedule.

The data below provides a pre-free agency outlook on how teams match up against their 2025 opponents. More updates will follow throughout the summer.

Note: The charts may appear “backwards” to some, as the ratings are relative to an average team in the league rather than a price for each team.

For example, San Francisco’s overall strength of schedule is -1.71, meaning that, on average, their opponents would be 1.71-point underdogs (or 1.71 points worse) to a league-average team on a neutral field.

Below, I’ve included my commentary on notable outliers.

Buffalo Bills - 12.75 Wins (1st)

The Buffalo Bills have an average opponent point spread rating of (-0.79), making theirs the 6th easiest overall schedule. They catch a break with the home-and-away distribution of games, further easing their path. Their nine home games have an average opponent rating of (+0.19), ranking as the 12th hardest, while their away games have an average opponent rating of (-2.69), the easiest road schedule of any team. The Bills are dominant at home, posting a 35-7 (83%) record since 2020, which is where they’ll face their toughest opponents this season. Projections have Buffalo favored by at least 3 points in each of their eight road games

Chicago Bears - 7.03 Wins (27th)

Ben Johnson will need to work magic in his debut season as head coach. The Bears face a brutal schedule, with an average opponent rating of (+1.18)—making it the second-most difficult in the league. Their toughest matchups are stacked on the road, where their average opponent rating is (+2.67), trailing only Detroit in difficulty. The only road game where Chicago is projected to be favored is against Las Vegas—though that could change if the Raiders add a top veteran quarterback. Even at home, the Bears are projected to be favored in just four of eight games.

Detroit Lions - 10.49 Wins (7th)

The Lions and Bears will be closely linked all season due to Ben Johnson’s move to Chicago. I upgraded the Bears for their head coach hire and similarly downgraded the Lions due to the loss of their offensive coordinator. Detroit’s coaching staff was raided by the rest of the league, including the departure of their defensive leader. They should be dominant in their eight home games, as they are projected to be favored in each one. However, their road schedule tells a different story. The Lions’ average road opponent rating is (+3.22), the most difficult of any home-or-road split in the league.

Their road schedule includes matchups against GB, MIN, BAL, CIN, PHI, WSH, KC, LAR, and CHI—seven of those nine opponents made the playoffs. The other two? A trip to face Joe Burrow’s Bengals and a division rivalry game against their former offensive coach in Chicago.

Minnesota Vikings - 8.41 Wins (18th)

Minnesota boasts a top-three home-field advantage based on in season point spread adjustments, but that edge will be tested in 2025. The Vikings host the league’s most difficult home schedule, with their average visitor rated (+2.88) points better than an average team. In addition to the tough NFC North trio, they welcome PHI, WSH, BAL, CIN, and ATL. Minnesota is projected to be favored in just three games.

Their road schedule ranks as the 12th easiest, but that may not be as favorable as it sounds with JJ McCarthy likely making his debut. Since 2013, “first-year” quarterbacks on the road are 88-113 against the spread.]

San Francisco 49ers - 10.70 Wins (6th)

San Francisco’s schedule is one of many factors pointing toward a bounce-back season. Projections have the 49ers winning the sixth-most games in the league. They have the easiest average opponent rating overall, the 3rd easiest home opponent rating, and the 4th easiest road opponent rating.

San Francisco is projected to be favored in 12 of their 17 games and will face just three teams coming off playoff appearances. They are set to play five of the league’s seven lowest-rated teams and only two teams ranked inside the top 13. It doesn’t get much easier than this.

New York Giants - 4.39 Wins (32nd)

The Giants enter the season as the lowest-graded team in the ratings and are projected to win the fewest games in the league. They also have one of the worst home-field advantages in football, making their 2025 outlook particularly grim.

New York faces opponents with an average rating of (+2.69), the second-most difficult schedule in the league. This projection assumes either Drew Lock or Tommy DeVito starts at quarterback. A key question: how much would their outlook improve with a veteran quarterback like Aaron Rodgers or Russell Wilson? Even with a hypothetical exaggerated 4-point overall rating bump from a QB upgrade, their projection would rise to just 6.64 wins.

That’s the reality of a home schedule featuring PHI, DAL, WSH, GB, MIN, KC, LAC, and SF.

Arizona Cardinals - 8.63 Wins (17th)

The ratings have Arizona graded as exactly league average, which might limit their status as a sneaky futures pick this season. Still, their rise is undeniable. Last year, they started 28th and finished 16th in composite ratings. The betting market has taken notice, but the Cardinals could have an even higher ceiling in 2025.

They face the 17th-most difficult overall schedule, ranking 7th easiest at home but 14th most difficult on the road. They are projected to be favored by a field goal or more in six games this season, compared to just three last year—two of which only happened due to quarterback injuries.

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Enjoy your weekend,

Adam