My Reaction to NFL Win Totals (Part 2)

On Thursday, BetOnline posted win totals for all 32 NFL teams.

Here is my reaction on the second half of the league.

(📖 “Part 1” in case you missed it)

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Note: I took market ratings from the end of last season and updated them based on personnel changes to create point spreads for all 272 regular season games. In this newsletter, I will reference projected win totals. These are the sum of implied vig-free money line prices derived from those point spreads (home field advantage is included at 1.5 points or 0.5 points on/off 3). Strength of schedule comments are related to the average power rating of teams compared to the league average. "Clay" is the win total from Mike Clay’s roster ratings and grades.

For example: The Buffalo Bills’ updated market rating is +6.5 (would be a 6.5-point favorite against an average team on a neutral field). Their average opponent in 2025 has a market rating of -0.85 (would be a 0.85-point underdog to a league average team on a neutral field). The Bills' implied win probability for each game in 2025 is 12.73, which is their projected win total.

Las Vegas - 6.5 Wins (O -130 / U EV)

Projection: 6.96 | Clay: 6.60

SOS: +0.09 (16th)

I bumped the Raiders up by just under 3 points from their end-of-season market rating due to the coaching staff overhaul and the addition of Geno Smith. Every noteworthy draft analyst expects Ashton Jeanty to be selected 6th overall, which could move the needle a tick more. This win total has already been bet up since opening, and it may continue to rise. Although the division is tough, the Raiders are currently favored or near pick'em in six games: Jaguars, Titans, Giants, Browns (home), and Colts, Patriots (away).

LA Chargers - 9.5 Wins (U -130 / O EV)

Projection: 8.70 | Clay: 8.50

SOS: +0.35 (19th)

I bumped the Chargers up slightly from their end-of-year rating for the addition of Najee Harris and the return of Mike Williams. However, the projection still doesn’t come close to 10 wins, and Mike Clay is a full win lower as well. If they take a WR or TE in Round 1, I could see their roster grade improving. With Denver at 9 wins shaded over, the Raiders at 6.5 wins getting bet over, and Kansas City at 11.5 wins shaded under, the Chargers’ price is somewhat locked in here with little room to move.

LA Rams - 9.5 Wins (O -145 / U +115)

Projection: 10.71 | Clay: 9.10

SOS: -0.03 (15th)

I think the way the youth on the defense clicked caught the Rams by surprise, and they now find themselves in a one-year "win-now" window with Matthew Stafford. Davante Adams is a small upgrade over current Cooper Kupp. With a middle-of-the-pack schedule, there is room for high expectations.

Miami - 8.5 Wins (U -140 / O +110)

Projection: 8.86 | Clay: 9.50

SOS: -0.76 (7th)

This is the lowest win total for Miami since Mike McDaniel took over in 2022. The Dolphins went under their win total last season for the first time since 2017, and they’re now priced 1.5 wins lower (with the vig equivalent) than they closed in 2024. Questions surrounding the culture, offense, and Hill have this team in limbo. However, can it go much lower than this? It’s near Patriots territory…Any signs of positivity from within the team could draw betting interest to the over, especially with this schedule. Only the Bills have a worse-rated average opponent on the road. Despite being downgraded, Miami is favored in five road games and a pick'em in another.

Minnesota - 8.5 Wins (U -130 / O EV)

Projection: 8.79 | Clay: 8.80

SOS: +1.50 (28th)

No team is scheduled to face a tougher slate of opponents at home than the Vikings. Their average opponent currently rates 3.18 points better than average. Minnesota has a top-three home-field advantage relative to the point spread, but that will be seriously tested. Even with an upgrade from end-of-year ratings due to a strong free agency window, this projection aligns with the win total, which is 5.5 wins lower than their 2024 result.

New England - 7.5 Wins (O -130 / U EV)

Projection: 7.31 | Clay: 8.80

SOS: -1.06 (3rd)

I thought I was aggressive with my upgrades, but apparently not! Mike Vrabel over Jerod Mayo is significant, and I love what the Patriots did at each level of defense in free agency. Stefon Diggs is an upgrade over what the Patriots currently have at WR. The fourth pick in the draft is expected to add value as well. But how high can we go? Even with a 4-point upgrade (rivaling Chicago’s coaching and offensive overhaul), the Patriots are still short of the win total based on my projections. The schedule is favorable, though: third easiest overall, and no team has an easier slate of home opponents. Projections have them favored in six games and near pick'em in two others in Foxboro. Still, 7.5 wins seems high.

New Orleans - 6.5 Wins (U -125 / O -105)

Projection: 6.74 | Clay: 7.60

SOS: -1.35 (2nd)

I’m a little surprised to see this being bet under. The Saints finished 2024 ranked 4th worst in market ratings. The season was marred by injuries and a quarterback carousel. Near the midpoint of the season, they fielded one of the worst rosters in the league, yet still managed to win three games down the stretch. The last remnants of the Payton/Allen/Brees era are gone, and this season is a fresh start with Kellen Moore stepping in. With Derek Carr at QB, should this team have a lower win total than Carolina, despite facing a schedule that is 0.75 points easier per game?

NY Giants - 5.5 Wins (U -125 / O -105)

Projection: 4.89 | Clay: 6.50

SOS: +1.85 (32nd)

I upgraded the Giants significantly last week when they signed Russell Wilson. Hate him or love him, he provides a much higher floor than Drew Lock or Tommy DeVito. Still, the projection is way under, mainly due to the tough schedule. The Giants are projected to face the toughest slate of opponents in 2025. Will they be favored in a game at kickoff all season? The worst-rated team they face at home is Dallas, and the worst-rated team they face on the road is New Orleans. Tough to see much upside here.

NY Jets - 5.5 Wins (O -160 / U +130)

Projection: 5.72 | Clay: 6.90

SOS: -0.21 (12th)

I went to the extreme and dropped the Jets by five full points from their end-of-season market rating. This projection is just slightly under the vig-adjusted win total, with Clay’s projection significantly higher. The truth likely lies somewhere in the middle. The offensive roster is weaker for the Jets, and the ceiling is capped with Justin Fields at QB. The variance for this team will largely be driven by the defense. Despite a worse roster than last season, the defense could outperform expectations if Glenn and Wilks elevate the on-field effort.

Philadelphia - 11.5 Wins (O -130 / U EV)

Projection: 11.48 | Clay: 10.40

SOS: +1.53 (29th)

Tied for the highest win total with Buffalo and rated equally at the top. No adjustment has been made from last season, which could be generous considering losses on defense and from the coaching staff. The schedule skews more difficult away from home, with road games against Kansas City, Buffalo, Green Bay, Minnesota, and the LA Chargers. The Eagles will still be considerable favorites each game at home, even if Dallas, Denver, and Detroit take steps forward.

Pittsburgh - Not Available

Projection: 7.92 | Clay: 7.50

SOS: +0.71 (22nd)

The only team without a win total posted is Pittsburgh, due to uncertainty about who will play quarterback. These projections are made with Mason Rudolph as the starter. A drop of 1.75 points from Russell Wilson last season, along with the loss of Najee Harris (minimal), was factored in. If Rodgers, Cousins, or Tannehill is the starter, the rating would return to a similar spot as it ended last season. However, a rookie QB would not have the same impact.

San Francisco - 10.5 Wins (U -125 / O -105)

Projection: 10.52 | Clay: 8.70

SOS: -1.47 (1st)

No team has a bigger contrast in win total vs national media perception. A poll in an Adam Schefter post had several thousand replies, with 71% saying the 49ers would miss the playoffs. Bill Simmons even guessed 6.5 wins as the total for San Francisco on his pod. I am not trying to say those are notable figures to the market, but the sentiment on this team is way lower than reality. Even Mike Clay, whom I respect greatly, has his projection nearly two wins under the total — the largest gap he has of any team! In my opinion, the free agency departures are being over-exaggerated, and the floor is being underestimated. The 49ers finished 2024 9th in market ratings, a four points downgrade from Week 1. They had the most injured offense in football, and down key starters all year. Despite downgrading them another point this offseason for the free agency departures, the projection remains high because of the schedule. San Francisco faces the easiest schedule in 2025, and the biggest underdog I see them priced at is +3.75 at the Rams. The only teams with significant variance that could play much harder are Chicago and Atlanta, and they face them both at home. But if those two games are early in the season, this is as easy a schedule as there is.

Seattle - 8.5 Wins (U -130 / O EV)

Projection: 7.99 | Clay: 8.80

SOS: -0.21 (13th)

I was generous to the Seahawks, only dropping their rating 1.5 points. That’s arguably light considering the departures of Smith, Metcalf, and Lockett. The projection still falls under the win total. There's a lot of variance with Darnold. How much of last year's rebound was due to playing indoors with elite weapons and a QB-friendly scheme? Can new Seahawks HC Klint Kubiak replicate that behind a patchwork offensive line? As much as I love Mike Macdonald, 8.5 wins seems too high for the worst team in the NFC West.

Tampa Bay - 8.5 Wins (O -140 / U +110)

Projection: 8.59 | Clay: 9.60

SOS: -0.53 (9th)

Houston is the AFC team I have difficulty pegging, and Tampa Bay is the NFC team. They did very little to change their end-of-year rating, and the projection comes out just above the win total. Offensive weapons remain the same, but there's a new play caller. It’s highly likely they add pass rush help in the draft. But is the secondary good enough to get back to double-digit wins?

Tennessee - 5.5 Wins (O -140 / U +110)

Projection: 6.25 | Clay: 5.60

SOS: -0.76 (8th)

I downgraded Tennessee from their end-of-year numbers, and the projection is still slightly higher than their win total. Similar to Cleveland, it's difficult to make any projections until we know what to expect at quarterback.

Washington - 9.5 Wins (O -115 / U -115)

Projection: 10.02 | Clay: 8.20

SOS: -1.09 (26th)

I upgraded Washington by half a point after the free agency window. I expect the summer to be full of commentary about how the Commanders overperformed last season — and I agree! They benefitted from turnover luck, fumble luck, and third-and-fourth-down conversion luck. Dan Quinn overperformed relative to the win total more than any retread head coach in the last 20 years. However, Jayden Daniels is a wild card for the floor he provides this team. Even if this is a repeat of the Houston Texans' build around C.J. Stroud last year, it’s still a team that won 10 games.