My Reaction to NFL Win Totals (Part 1)

On Thursday, BetOnline posted win totals for all 32 NFL teams.

Here is my reaction on the first half of the league.

The second half will be sent in the next email.

Note: I took market ratings from the end of last season and updated them based on personnel changes to create point spreads for all 272 regular season games. In this newsletter, I will reference projected win totals. These are the sum of implied vig-free money line prices derived from those point spreads (home field advantage is included at 1.5 points or 0.5 points on/off 3). Strength of schedule comments are related to the average power rating of teams compared to the league average. "Clay" is the win total from Mike Clay’s roster ratings and grades.

For example: The Buffalo Bills’ updated market rating is +6.5 (would be a 6.5-point favorite against an average team on a neutral field). Their average opponent in 2025 has a market rating of -0.85 (would be a 0.85-point underdog to a league average team on a neutral field). The Bills' implied win probability for each game in 2025 is 12.73, which is their projected win total.

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Arizona - 8.5 wins (o EV / u -130)

Projection: 8.60 | Clay: 8.90

SOS: -0.12 (14th)

A sneaky team that could over perform in 2025. They play hard every week for Jonathan Gannon and doubled their win total from 4 to 8 from Year 1 to Year 2. Still feels like they are one pass rusher away on defense, but new DL and LB coach hires can elevate the unit, along with free agency signings. Much of the upside is priced in, though. Finished 2024 ranked 16th in market ratings, making it tough to bump up much higher than this.

Atlanta - 7.5 wins (o -125 / u -105)

Projection: 7.66 | Clay: 6.79

SOS: -0.88 (4th)

Tough team to project. Penix will take over full-time at QB and there are lots of unknowns. An easy schedule lifts their projections, but the NFC South could play harder than expected if the Panthers and Saints improve from near-bottom league numbers. Expecting the defensive draft to help boost the pass rush, but not sure it’ll impact the rating.

Baltimore - 11.5 wins (o -115 / u -115)

Projection: 11.86 | Clay: 11.30

SOS: +0.62 (24th)

Tied for the highest point spread rating with Buffalo. I did not make changes from the end of the year. They have the second most difficult road opponent schedule at the moment, though that could change depending on what Pittsburgh and Cleveland do at quarterback. Timing of games will be important—best case is Minnesota early (new QB) and Miami late (weather). New England and Chicago (new coaches) home game timing will also be impactful.

Buffalo - 11.5 wins (o -140 / u +110)

Projection: 12.71 | Clay: 11.80

SOS: -0.82 (5th)

Clear path to the AFC #1 seed. The highest rating and highest win total projection of any team. They have a top-five easiest schedule overall, very friendly for home and away distribution. No team has an easier road schedule than Buffalo, with their average opponent 2.69 points worse than an average team (Atlanta, Carolina, Cleveland, Houston, Miami, New England, NY Jets, Pittsburgh). Only one of those teams rates above average. Barring injury, the Bills will be favored by 3+ in each. Every tough game is at home this year for the Bills, where they have a big advantage (Baltimore, Kansas City, Cincinnati, Philadelphia, Tampa Bay).

Carolina - 6.5 wins (o -125 / u -105)

Projection: 6.39 | Clay: 6.50

SOS: -0.32 (10th)

Fair. BetOnline has Carolina two wins higher than listed last season. Offense and defense came on at the end of 2024. They deserve an upgrade, and the easier-than-average schedule has the projection close to the price. Defense will improve with full seasons from Brown, Wonnum, and Jewell more than free agency adds. Expecting a defense-heavy draft to help further. I could see them improving to the -3/-3.5 rating mark by Week 1.

Chicago - 8.5 wins (u -130 / o EV)

Projection: 7.06 | Clay: 8.04

SOS: +1.65 (30th)

I have upgraded the Bears by 4 points from their end-of-year market rating, mostly for the addition of Johnson, Thuney, Dalman, and Jackson. However, this projection still falls well short of the win total. The Bears face the third most difficult overall and the second hardest away from home. Road games at Detroit, Minnesota, Green Bay, Philadelphia, Washington, Baltimore, Cincinnati, San Francisco, and Las Vegas are brutal. All rank above average—except for Las Vegas—and all have top pass rush ability—except for Cincinnati. New coaches, schemes, and offensive lines take time to settle. If these road games are front-loaded in the schedule, it will be tough to overcome.

Cincinnati - 10.5 wins (u -130 / o EV)

Projection: 9.85 | Clay: 8.60

SOS: +0.50 (20th)

Cincinnati finished 2024 rated 1.2 points worse in market ratings than they started. I’ve bumped them back up to the starting point of 2024, but having the first uninterrupted offseason of Joe Burrow’s career could be worth more. Injuries or holdouts have disrupted him and this team every summer since he entered the league. Now that Chase and Higgins are done, this offseason could finally avoid a sixth straight dreaded slow start. Some luck with all the tough road games (3rd most difficult away schedule) backloading the schedule would go a long way.

Cleveland - 5 wins (o -115 / u -115)

Projection: 4.32 | Clay: 5.00

SOS: +1.18 (27th)

Not complete without an answer at QB. Cleveland is currently the lowest team in power ratings, but I’m rating all of these rosters as they are now. Cleveland is low due to Kenny Pickett slotted in as the starting QB. I am guessing that changes between now and September. To get to six wins based on this tough schedule, the hypothetical QB would need to be over 3 points a game better compared to Pickett. That might be tough to find at this stage.

Dallas - 7.5 wins (u -125 / o -105)

Projection: 7.85 | Clay: 7.30

SOS: +0.85 (24th)

Is this the first time Dallas isn’t inflated in…years? Dallas finished 2024 rated 4.7 points worse than an average team in market ratings. For the return of Dak Prescott, an upgraded RB room, and a new coach, I bumped up Dallas by 4.5 points. This puts them 3 points lower than they started last year. I did not think that was out of line, and the projection still comes out high despite the tough schedule.

Denver - 9 wins (o -115 / u -115)

Projection: 8.99 | Clay: 9.70

SOS: +0.32 (18th)

Stacked roster, but priced in. Almost three wins higher than last season, and deservingly so. If the returning pieces stay healthy and Hufanga and Greenlaw contribute at a level close to their 2023 pre-injury talent, this could be the best defense in the league. Engram is a sneaky good add for a Payton offense. Potential to add another weapon in the draft, which could slightly increase this projection.

Detroit - 10.5 wins (u -140 / o +110)

Projection: 10.39 | Clay: 11.90

SOS: +1.71 (31st)

Detroit was the second-highest team in market ratings to end last season. Even though I upgraded Chicago a lot for getting Johnson, my downgrade for the Lions was only 1 point, as the defensive health issues last year tapered that market number. The Lions face the second most difficult schedule and the most difficult road schedule of any team. Their average road opponent rates 3.78 points better than average. It’s hard to believe. The only team on their road schedule I could see dipping significantly enough to matter is Minnesota if JJ McCarthy struggles. Otherwise, it’s elite team after elite team every game away from Ford Field.

Green Bay - 9.5 wins (u -125 / o -105)

Projection: 10.11 | Clay: 9.10

SOS: +1.06 (25th)

Very little change last year to this year in power rating numbers or overall roster grades. Opposite of Detroit, the Packers face most of their tough games at home (average opponent rating 2.71 points better than average), while their away schedule is against an easier-than-average slate.

Houston - 9.5 wins (u -125 / o -105)

Projection: 8.86 | Clay: 9.40

SOS: +0.15 (17th)

I downgraded Houston from their end-of-season numbers due to offensive line changes, offsetting a minimal amount with the addition of Christian Kirk in the absence of Tank Dell. Very indifferent on this team overall.

Indianapolis - 7.5 wins (u -125 / o -105)

Projection: 7.01 | Clay: 8.40

SOS: -0.29 (11th)

The Colts won 8 games last year with a roster of near equal overall grade. This year, the offensive line will be worse, but the defense will be better. I was hoping they would go with an established veteran, which would have made this a good "over." But Daniel Jones was not the name I had in mind. It's tough to get excited enough about the offense to bump this team up much from where they ended in 2024 to warrant a positive opinion.

Jacksonville - 7.5 wins (o -125 / u -105)

Projection: 8.01 | Clay: 7.40

SOS: -0.76 (6th)

BetOnline opens them one win lower than last season. Jacksonville finished 2024 -4.6 in market ratings. I upgraded them to -2 to start this year to compensate for the Trevor Lawrence injury deflating that number. New GM, new coaching staff, and a new outlook are all positives. As is facing the 6th easiest schedule, which is balanced both home and away. Easy to see the path to an over perform here.

Kansas City - 11.5 wins (u -125 / o -105)

Projection: 11.00 | Clay: 10.40

SOS: +0.79 (23rd)

There are three layups on the schedule: NY Giants, Tennessee, and Indianapolis. Otherwise, it’s a battle. What makes it tougher for Kansas City is just how much better some of these teams could become. It’s fair to say that Dallas, Las Vegas (x2), and LA Chargers (x2) are rated closer to their floor than ceiling. Denver (x2) is priced high but could have an absolutely dominant defense that isn’t fully priced in yet. The schedule is tough as it is, but when we look back next February, this will likely play more difficult than listed. It’s such a stark contrast to the Bills' schedule, despite being priced nearly equal. I don’t agree with that. Will the Rice suspension be revisited? How long will it take for the OL to settle in without Thuney?