Everything We Know (and Don’t) About the Top 10 NFL Draft Picks

"Never believe any news during draft week" is an old adage in draft media—and sometimes in betting. Monday saw numerous experts post “what I’m hearing” columns, which triggered a flurry of opinions and reactions in the betting market.

I find this draft especially conflicting as both an analyst and a bettor. For the better part of two months, there was a clear info trail that led to strong consensus inside the top 10—one that was widely shared. How could it not be? All the clues were there.

What I don’t know now is how much of the new reporting is genuine, and how much is deception—meant to entice trades or simply deviate from consensus for media effect.

For a mental reset—and to help anyone just starting to bet the draft this week—I’ve compiled an “Everything We Know” breakdown, contrasting the then vs now for each top-10 pick, along with some key positional over/under market moves.

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NFL Draft Top-10 Market Breakdown

1st Pick – Tennessee Titans

• Pick: Cameron Ward (QB)

• Odds: -20000

• Ian Rapoport reported that the consensus around the league is the Titans are picking Ward and not entertaining a trade.

2nd Pick – Cleveland Browns

• Pick: Travis Hunter (CB/WR)

• Odds: -800 (was -300 last week)

• Price increase reflects strong connections between Browns and Hunter. Logical fit, and the market is adjusting accordingly.

3rd Pick – New York Giants

• Rumors: Shedeur Sanders (QB) is gaining attention, but skepticism remains.

  • Dan Orlovsky made a strong case for Sanders yesterday on NFL Live

  • Nick Kostos, a Giants fan tied to local NY media, mentioned he wouldn’t be surprised if the team targets a QB.

  • However, Brian Daboll is under pressure to win now and has already signed two QBs in free agency.

  • Daboll is “anti taking Shadeur at #3” according to Todd McShay

• Expected Pick: Abdul Carter (LB)

  • If common sense prevails", Carter likely goes to the Giants at No. 3.

4th Pick – New England Patriots

• Expected Pick: Will Campbell (OT)

• Odds: -380

• Despite early uncertainty, multiple sources, including Ian Rapoport, suggest Campbell remains the top target, even if Abdul Carter is available at No. 4.

• Rich Eisen said the Patriots are “in love” with Campbell and will do the sensible thing to protect Drake Maye

• While -380 isn't a confident betting number, the trend favors Campbell.

5th Pick – Jacksonville Jaguars

• Trending Favorite: Ashton Jeanty (RB), now +115

• Mason Graham (DT) was the previous consensus pick here. His position still has the strongest correlation to coach and GM commentary. He is +165 to go #5.

• Graham’s positional price has moved from Under 5.5 -155 to Over 5.5 -215.

• Key considerations:

  • Jeanty’s rise was due to an Adam Schefter article posted on Monday.

  • The same article speculated on Tet McMillan which dropped his price from +5000 to +700

  • Jaguars staff, including Liam Coen and James Gladstone, have downplayed the need for RBs and WRs early in the draft. Coen said there are some good WR’s “later on” and emphasized the depth in the RB class during his combine interview.

  • New GM James Gladstone has emphasized OL, DL, and EDGE as priorities. After signing four offensive linemen in free agency, DL remains a major position of need - where Gladstone basically said he will “spend multiple picks”.

  • A trade is a major wildcard here; Jacksonville likely isn’t targeting Jeanty directly.

6th Pick – Las Vegas Raiders

• Options:

  • Ashton Jeanty +100 (RB), if available.

  • Armand Membou +150 (OT), if Jeanty is off the board.

• Daniel Jeremiah noted in February that the Raiders may prioritize the best defensive player available over OL help.

• Pete Carroll’s short coaching window suggests urgency.

  • Would he really rely on Raheem Mostert as the lead back in Week 1? Doubtful.

• Jeanty himself thinks the draft starts for him at #6 and has a floor of #12.

• If Jeanty isn’t taken by the Raiders, it’s likely because another team trades up to No. 5.

• Membou steam came late last week when Adam Schefter mentioned him with the Raiders at #6.

7th Pick – New York Jets

• Expected Pick: Armand Membou +150 (OT)

  • Fits new head coach Aaron Glenn’s plan for stability during a rebuild.

  • Membou played his college career at right tackle and fits perfectly.

• Contingencies:

  • If Membou is gone, Banks Jr. could be an option, though interest may be linked to teams drafting 10–13.

  • Warren at +275 is possible, but not strongly supported by current reports.

  • If Mason Graham slides, he could become a real alternative to Membou.

8th Pick – Carolina Panthers

• Expected Pick: Likely defense, especially pass rushers like Jalon Walker +130 or Mykel Williams +450.

• GM Dan Morgan has prioritized building the defensive line this offseason like he did the offensive line last season.

• There has been speculation about a tight end at long odds (opened 25-1, now lower), but defense seems more likely.

9th Pick – New Orleans Saints

• Wildcard Spot:

  • Names like Mykel Williams +370., Shedeur Sanders +425, Kelvin Banks Jr. +600, and Shemar Stewart +600 are all in the mix

  • Reports suggest the Saints are not targeting Sanders at No. 9 (or even in the second round.)

• Leaning: Defensive line or pass rusher.

  • Odds have moved from +650 to -105 in favor of this direction.

  • Williams is seeing action, but Stewart over Williams would be a reach.

10th Pick – Chicago Bears

• Favorite: Tyler Warren +350 (TE)

  • Warren has been the consistent pick in mocks for two weeks.

• Considerations:

  • New head coach Ben Johnson may want more weapons for Caleb Williams.

  • Despite offseason investments in OL, another lineman isn’t off the table.

  • Kelvin Banks Jr. or Armand Membou (if he slides) could be strong options.

  • Tight end has been rumored, but conviction is lacking. Not much tying Warren to Chicago from staff comments.

• This pick is one of the most volatile in the top 10.

Something to watch:

Jihaad Campbell 18.5 - Over -200 (DK/BOL)

Expected to begin the season on the PUP list. Dropped in the Top 150 boards because of poor medicals. Already tied to Tampa Bay 19th as the top mock consensus. Should slide more between now and draft day.